Tucket News HubTwo unconnected developments on the international stage this week reflected the prospect of a new era shaking the extent of American predominance in global trade and geo-strategic security.
The first was evidence of what is termed “soft secession” planning of populous American states to neutralise federal governance in the US, and the second was signs of rapprochement between China and India after years of argument and open hostility along their mountainous border area.
The common factor in each development is the political approach of US President Donald Trump, whose style of fierce transactional policymaking and retribution on those countries and individuals who displease him is rarely less than provocative.
Democratic state officials have sought to nullify Trump administration executive actions, posing a “soft” threat to the post-Civil War union established in 1861.
Democrats hold the governorship of 23 states and Republicans 27. But those controlled by Democrats contain the largest concentration of urban centres – New York, Chicago, Los Angeles. They contribute billions of dollars to the US federal treasury, whereas the states controlled by a Republican governor take out more than US$1.20 for every dollar they send to the capital. Legal opinions suggest that without state co-operation much of the federal government’s agenda becomes unenforceable.
Respected American author Chris Armitage writes that American federalism in 2025 looks like this: “Democratic governors holding emergency sessions on encrypted apps; attorneys-general filing lawsuits within hours of executive orders; and state legislatures quietly passing laws that amount to nullification of federal mandates.
“Oregon is stockpiling abortion medication in secret warehouses. Illinois is exploring digital sovereignty. California has US$76 billion in reserves and is deciding how to deploy it.
“Three sources on daily Zoom calls between attorneys-general say the same phrase keeps coming up, though nobody wants to say it publicly: soft secession.
“Not the violent rupture of 1861, but something else entirely. Blue states building parallel systems, withholding cooperation, and creating facts on the ground that render federal authority meaningless within their borders.”
Armitage notes that cannabis legalisation has spread to 41 states despite federal prohibition, forcing Washington to essentially give up.
He says Illinois Governor J B Pritzker has his staff exploring how to force Apple and Google to disable location tracking for anyone crossing into Illinois for medical procedures, preventing any digital trail that could be subpoenaed. Multiple governors are studying whether they can legally deny federal agents access to state databases, airports, and highways for immigration enforcement.
While America goes through this period of division, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi got together in the Chinese port city of Tianjin.
They did so at a gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) formed by Eurasian countries as a counterpoint to Western institutions. Other members include Russia, Belarus, Iran, and Pakistan, with 16 countries designated as “dialogue partners”.
Modi told Xi: “The interests of 2.8 billion people of both countries are linked to our cooperation. This will also pave the way for the welfare of the entire humanity.”
India and China have in common tariff retribution imposed by the Trump White House on their exports to America because of their commitment to buying Russian oil, a substantive gesture in respect of Moscow’s financing of the war in Ukraine.
Any collective agreement involving the two populous Asian giants on how they will deal with America’s trade policies would upend current global trading patterns. That Russian President Vladmir Putin, with his close ally in Belarus on hand, will seek to extend his support for the Russian aggression in Ukraine is expected. China would expect his support in the event of it moving militarily on Taiwan.
But at least a degree of unity within the Eurasian bloc contrasts markedly with the splits apparent within the US, and the extent of diplomacy required to maintain cohesion in Nato over Ukraine.
Not to be forgotten is that as leaders of Russian regions or Chinese provinces the recalcitrant state governors in the US would be at this point either in prison or under close guard.
The Trump version of government has, however, provided democracy Western style with new challenges that will test its resilience in the face of new pressures likely to arise when the SCO meeting is ended. Both Russia and China have promoted it as a non-Western led power bloc that could be an alternative to Nato.
Bruce has been an economics and business editor, political and foreign correspondent in Washington, London and Hong Kong. He recently retired as CEO of the Building Industry Federation.
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